A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
