Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
